Plant‑based grocery dollars are shifting: milk steadies, faux‑meat recalibrates, cheese and yogurt climb, tofu holds firm—here’s where shoppers are putting their money now.
We can gauge cultural change in the quietest places — like the refrigerated aisle, where oat milk now jostles with dairy, or the freezer case, where vegan chicken tenders share space with nuggets made of actual chicken.
Those shelves tell a sweeping story about consumer priorities, taste buds, and budgets.
New data from 2023–25 shows the plant‑based boom entering its next chapter: overall retail sales are still climbing, but the growth is uneven, with some categories cooling while others sprint ahead.
Below is a global, category‑by‑category look at what’s really happening inside grocery carts, why it matters, and where the money is flowing next.
1. A broader market—yet slower total growth
In 2019, plant‑based grocery sales sat at roughly US $22 billion.
By 2023 they had climbed to about US $29 billion — a 34% jump in four years, based on GFI 2023.
That’s impressive, but the pace is moderating: 2022–23 delivered only a low‑single‑digit bump as inflation bit into household budgets. Still, the consumer base continues to widen.
In a 10‑country survey, 66% of Gen Z and millennial shoppers said they plan to spend more on plant‑based meat and dairy in the coming years.
Translation: the slowdown looks tactical, not terminal—categories with the right taste‑price equation are poised for a second wind.
2. Plant‑based milk: the mature heavyweight
No category embodies the shift better than non‑dairy milk. In 2023 it generated US $18.7 billion in global sales, dwarfing every other alt‑food segment.
Asia‑Pacific leads—think long‑standing soy milk cultures in China and trendy coconut drinks in Thailand — while North America and Europe now see plant milks claiming about 10–15% of retail milk dollars.
Growth has cooled to a crawl (+1 percent in the U.S. last year), largely because the category has saturated shelf space and, frankly, raised prices faster than cow’s milk.
Yet the sub‑segments are evolving: high‑protein pea or soy milks, kid‑focused DHA‑fortified cartons, and barista oat milks keep innovation bubbling even in a slower market.
Key takeaway: Non‑dairy milk is no longer a novelty — it’s an anchoring staple. Expect steady—not explosive— gains as manufacturers chase taste parity, protein parity, and price parity with dairy.
3. Meat alternatives: recalibrating after a meteoric rise
From 2018–21, plant‑based burgers and sausages grabbed headlines—and freezer real estate.
But 2023 was a reset year. U.S. retail sales of meat analogues fell ~12 percent in dollars and 19 percent in units.
Europe eked out about 6 percent growth to hit €2 billion, yet even there volumes softened as shoppers traded down to cheaper proteins.
The culprit?
A mismatch between cost and perceived value. Many flexitarians who loved the novelty balked at paying double the price of ground beef during an inflation crunch.
That said, the category isn’t monolithic.
Chicken‑style nuggets and tenders are still gaining share, and seafood analogues—from konjac‑based shrimp to pea‑protein tuna—are tiny but doubling year on year.
Latin America and parts of Asia remain high‑growth zones simply because distribution is ramping up from a low base.
Key takeaway: First‑wave burgers may be plateauing, but sub‑segments that nail convenience, flavor and cost (especially chicken mimics) continue to draw spending.
4. Cheese, yogurt, ice cream: alt‑dairy diversifies the basket
Plant‑based cheese hit roughly US $900 million worldwide in 2023 — small potatoes next to milk, yet one of the quickest‑growing alt categories.
Big dairy names now dabble: Kraft rolled out a vegan version of American singles; Babybel offers a plant‑based round; Philadelphia launched almond‑oil cream cheese.
Taste is improving, but sticker shock remains: most vegan cheeses run 50–200% pricier than dairy, braking mass adoption.
Plant‑based yogurt is a steadier story: US $1.6 billion globally, buoyed by almond and coconut yogurts across Europe. Texture upgrades and probiotic claims are converting lactose‑intolerant shoppers.
Non‑dairy ice cream sits at US $1.4 billion. Growth has flattened, partially because premium pints now cost US $6–8. But product quality—think melt‑in‑mouth oat‑milk cookies‑and‑cream — keeps the pint party going for indulgence‑oriented consumers.
Key takeaway: Alt‑dairy beyond milk is expanding, but each segment faces a “price‑to‑pleasure” threshold. Companies that deliver convincing taste at competitive prices will unlock new spending.
5. Quiet achievers: tofu, tempeh and pantry proteins
While venture‑backed burger makers hog the limelight, humble tofu and tempeh march on. In the U.S. these traditional proteins grew low‑single‑digits in 2023, even as faux‑meat slid.
They’re inexpensive, versatile, and well‑known to home cooks.
Across Asia, tofu is an everyday staple worth billions (market size rarely captured in Western “plant‑based” reports).
Pea‑protein powders and chickpea pastas also keep pantries plant‑rich — plant‑based protein powder sales in the U.S. rose 7% last year.
Key takeaway: When budgets tighten, consumers gravitate toward whole‑food proteins that balance nutrition and affordability—great news for soy blocks and lentil bags.
6. Convenience foods: frozen entrées in flux
Lockdown made vegan frozen pizza a hero; 2023 reminded brands that novelty fades. U.S. frozen plant‑based entrées dropped 14%, down to $498 million.
Price premiums and taste fatigue weighed. Yet convenience is evergreen. Brands now pivot to “cleaner label” bowls heavy on vegetables and grains, less on pricey faux meats.
Private‑label supermarket lines (e.g. Aldi’s Earth Grown) are also injecting value products that could reignite growth.
Key takeaway: Ready‑to‑heat vegan meals aren’t dead; they just need sharper pricing and simpler ingredient decks to win back weekday shoppers.
7. Eggs and seafood: micro‑segments with macro potential
Plant‑based eggs—not the flax‑and‑water home hack, but scramble‑ready liquids—captured about 0.5% of U.S. egg sales in 2023.
Unit sales slipped after early double‑digit surges, yet product launches—from powdered baking replacers to vegan hard‑boiled eggs in Europe—hint at future traction.
Alt‑seafood is even smaller, nestled inside the plant‑meat figure, but it’s the fastest‑growing sub‑category proportionally. Start‑ups from Singapore to Spain are racing to solve flaky textures and authentic “sea” flavor.
Sustainability messaging — overfishing, microplastics — gives seafood analogues a compelling narrative that burgers never had.
Key takeaway: These niches won’t dent grocery budgets overnight, but if technology can deliver taste parity, they could unlock entirely new spending streams.
8. Price and value: the new growth gatekeepers
Consumer research shows price is now the top barrier to buying more plant‑based products, edging out taste.
Many alt items carry premiums of 50–300%.
Inflation amplified sticker shock, especially for middle‑income shoppers. Retailers have responded with tighter assortments and more private‑label vegan lines, hoping to democratize prices.
Analysts expect scale, ingredient tweaks (e.g., less pea protein, more soy or fava), and local sourcing to narrow the gap.
When oat milk hit near parity with dairy in Sweden, its market share jumped to 16 percent.
The lesson: value wins at the shelf edge.
9. Health and taste, not ideology, drive purchases
Global surveys still rank personal health as the primary motive for trying plant-based foods, followed by taste-seeking novelty, with ethics and climate close behind.
That hierarchy matters.
Products riding a health halo (protein‑rich milks, low‑sugar yogurts) retain spend even when budgets tighten. Conversely, indulgent but pricey treats see faster cutbacks.
For marketers, aligning nutritional wins with indulgent flavor is the sweet spot—literally.
10. Where spending goes next
Market watchers forecast plant‑based dairy (all products) to expand ~4% CAGR through 2029, outpacing conventional dairy’s 2.3 percent.
Meat analogues may rebound if cost and culinary performance improve; analysts predict mid‑single‑digit growth resuming by 2026 as supply chains scale.
Whole‑food proteins and private‑label lines could absorb price‑sensitive flexitarians.
And new frontiers—cultivated meat, precision‑fermented casein—might blur lines between “plant‑based” and tech‑enabled animal‑free products, redirecting grocery dollars yet again.
Putting the cart together: a snapshot spending day
Breakfast: oat‑milk latte (non‑dairy milk), chia‑seed overnight oats with pea protein powder (pantry protein).
Lunch: tofu banh mi with quick‑pickle veggies (whole‑food protein), side of almond yogurt (alt‑yogurt).
Snack: vegan cheddar crackers (dairy‑free cheese) and fruit.
Dinner: chickpea pasta tossed with plant‑based chicken strips and broccoli (meat alternative + veggie), vegan gelato dessert (non‑dairy ice cream).
Groceries purchased: five distinct plant‑based categories, only one of them (the chicken strips) at a premium price. That blended cart mirrors how many consumers now weave value, health, and novelty together.
Final thought: evolution over revolution
From oat‑milk flat whites in Auckland to tofu tacos in Mexico City, plant‑based foods have become routine grocery fare.
Spending patterns prove the honeymoon has matured into a marriage — one that occasionally needs counseling on price and flavor, but endures because both partners see long‑term benefits.
The categories that survive inflation shocks will be those that solve for affordability and taste without sacrificing their health‑and‑planet promise.
Watch for private‑label bargains, simpler ingredient lists, and next‑gen products that beat animal counterparts on more than ethics.
If the past decade was about discovery, the next will be about refinement — and the receipts will tell the story.
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